RESEARCH PAPER
Trend analysis of AIDS mortality and years of life lost from 2004 to 2019 in southern Iran
1
Department of Community Medicine, School of Medicine, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
2
Department of Epidemiology, Student Research Committee, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
3
Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
4
Department of Epidemiology, Research Center for Health Sciences, Institute of Health, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
5
Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
Submission date: 2023-11-25
Final revision date: 2024-04-15
Acceptance date: 2024-04-16
Publication date: 2026-09-25
Corresponding author
Alireza Mirahmadizadeh
Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Introduction:
This study aimed to determine the mortality rate and years of life lost (YLL) due to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in southern Iran.
Material and methods:
All deaths from AIDS in Fars province were obtained from electronic population-based death registration system (EDRS). Crude mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), YLL, and YLL rate data were calculated. Joinpoint regression method was used to examine the trend.
Results:
During the 16-year study period (2004-2019), 663 deaths caused by AIDS occurred in Fars province. Of these, 89.4% (593 cases) were men, and 57.3% (380 cases) were 30-44 years old. The total YLL due to AIDS during the study period was 13,232 in men and 1,569 in women. Based on joinpoint regression analysis, the rate of YLL due to premature mortality remained stable over 16 years. The annual percent change (APC) for males was 0.2%, with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of –6.4 to 7.1 and a p-value of 0.960. For females, the APC was 5.2%, with a 95% CI of –5.7 to 17.3 and a p-value of 0.337.
Conclusions:
While there was a decrease in crude and standardized mortality rates and YLL related to AIDS in men, there was an increase in these rates among women. However, the changes in trends were not deemed statistically significant. Political commitment and effective technical strategies are needed to prevent the occurrence of this disease through continuous care services.
This study aimed to determine the mortality rate and years of life lost (YLL) due to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in southern Iran.
Material and methods:
All deaths from AIDS in Fars province were obtained from electronic population-based death registration system (EDRS). Crude mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), YLL, and YLL rate data were calculated. Joinpoint regression method was used to examine the trend.
Results:
During the 16-year study period (2004-2019), 663 deaths caused by AIDS occurred in Fars province. Of these, 89.4% (593 cases) were men, and 57.3% (380 cases) were 30-44 years old. The total YLL due to AIDS during the study period was 13,232 in men and 1,569 in women. Based on joinpoint regression analysis, the rate of YLL due to premature mortality remained stable over 16 years. The annual percent change (APC) for males was 0.2%, with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of –6.4 to 7.1 and a p-value of 0.960. For females, the APC was 5.2%, with a 95% CI of –5.7 to 17.3 and a p-value of 0.337.
Conclusions:
While there was a decrease in crude and standardized mortality rates and YLL related to AIDS in men, there was an increase in these rates among women. However, the changes in trends were not deemed statistically significant. Political commitment and effective technical strategies are needed to prevent the occurrence of this disease through continuous care services.
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